JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION January 23, 2009 JCX-11-09 ESTIMATED BUDGET EFFECTS OF THE "AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT TAX ACT OF 2009," [1] SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON JANUARY 27, 2009 Fiscal Years 2009 - 2019 [Millions of Dollars] Provision Effective 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 I. Tax Relief for Individuals and Families 1. Making Work Pay Credit - credit of 6.2% of earned income up to a maximum of $500 single ($1,000 joint) for tax years 2009 and 2010; phaseout for taxpayers with modified2010; phaseout for taxpayers with modified AGI in excess of $75,000 ($150,000 joint), credit reduced by special payment made by the SSA and the VA; and treatment of the U.S. Possessions [2] [3]................................................. tyba 12/31/08 -23,859 -80,902 -37,481 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 142,243 -142,243 -142,243 -142,243 2. Temporary increase in earned income tax credit for taxable years 2009 and 2010 [3]............ tyba 12/31/08 -23 -2,349 -2,291 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4,663 -4,663 -4,663 -4,663 3. Temporarily reduce the earnings threshold for the refundable portion of the child tax credit for taxable years 2009 and 2010 to $6,000 [3]...... tyba 12/31/08 [4] -5,303 -5,238 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 10,542 -10,542 -10,542 -10,542 4. American Opportunity Tax Credit - amend the HOPE scholarship credit for taxable years 2009 and 2010 so that it is available for four years at a rate of 100% of first $2,000 of expenses and 25% of next $2,000; phaseout for taxpayers with modified AGI between $80,000 - $90,000 ($160,000- $180,000 joint); make textbooks a qualifying expense; allow against the AMT [5].......................................................... tyba 12/31/08 -791 -4,425 -5,040 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 10,256 -10,256 -10,256 -10,256 5. Make 30% of the allowable American Opportunity Tax Credit refundable [3] [5]............ tyba 12/31/08 -242 -1,262 -1,170 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2,674 -2,674 -2,674 -2,674 6. Temporarily allow computer technology and equipment as a qualified higher education expense for qualified tuition programs for 2009 and 2010................................................................ tyba 12/31/08 [1] [1] [1] -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 Page 2 Provision Effective 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 7. Waiver of requirement to repay first-time homebuyer credit unless home is sold within 36 months of purchase........................................... hpo/a 1/1/09 66 192 -98 -293 -334 -621 -539 -457 -328 -109 -40 -467 -1,088 -2,521 -2,562 8. Exclude up to $2,400 of unemployment insurance benefits from gross income for taxable year 2009................................................... DOE -948 -3,792 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4,740 -4,740 -4,740 -4,740 Total of Tax Relief for Individuals and Families ………………………… -25,797 -97,841 -51,318 -294 -335 -622 -540 -458 -329 -110 -41 -175,586 -176,207 -177,642 -177,686 II. Renewable Energy Incentives 1. Extension of the renewable electricity credit extend by three years the placed-in-service date for each section 45 qualified facility (two years for marine renewables), excluding coal and ppisa 12/31/09 solar facilities........................................................ & 12/31/10 -- - 127 -440 -921 -1,365 -1,603 -1,649 -1,700 -1,743 -1,788 -1,806 -2,853 -4,456 -11,337 -13,143 2. Election of investment credit for section 45 facilities in lieu of production credits.................... ppisa 12/31/08 -96 -131 -29 16 11 8 4 -- -- -- -- 230 -221 -218 -218 3 Mdif i 48 di 3. Modify section 48 energy credit – remove cap for small wind systems, and remove cutback to credit for subsidized energy financing................... pa 12/31/08 -31 -33 -42 -50 -59 -71 -87 -104 -66 -32 -26 -216 -287 -577 -604 4. Increased limitation on issuance of new clean renewable energy bonds ($1.6 billion additional allocation).............................................................. DOE -1 -4 -15 -36 -59 -73 -78 -78 -78 -78 -78 -115 -188 -500 -578 5. Increased limitation on issuance of qualified energy conservation bonds ($2.4 billion additional allocation)............................................. DOE -1 -5 -17 -41 -69 -95 -111 -116 -116 -116 -116 -133 -228 -687 -803 6. Extension and temporary increase to 30% ($1,500 per residence cap) credit for all section 25C nonbusiness energy property, and repeal reduction in section 25C credits by reason of ea 12/31/08 & receipt of subsidized energy financing.................. before 1/1/11 -370 -1,967 -1,938 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4,275 -4,275 -4,275 -4,275 7. Credit for residential energy efficient property remove credit cap for residential wind, geothermal property, and residential solar thermal property under section 25D, repeal reduction in all section 25D credits (residential solar, geothermal, wind, fuel cells) by reason of receipt of subsidized energy.................................. tyba 12/31/08 -7 -29 -30 -32 -33 -34 -36 -37 -28 -- -- 131 -165 -268 -268 8. Temporarily increase credit rate for nonhydrogen refueling property to 50%; increase max credit to $50,000 for business property ($200,000 in the case of hydrogen) and $2,000 for nonbusiness property (sunset 12/31/10)................ tyba 12/31/08 -11 -21 -14 -6 -4 -2 1 1 1 1 1 -57 -59 -55 -54 Page 3 Provision Effective 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 9. 20% research credit for qualified energy research (sunset 12/31/10)..................................... 10. 5-year carryback of general business credits and allow general business credits to offset 100% of Federal tax liability................................. tyba 12/31/08 [6] -2 -9,127 -6 -292 -5 -257 -2 -231 -2 -208 -1 -187 -- - 168 -- - 152 -- - 136 -- - 123 -- 111 -17 -10,115 -18 -10,302 -18 -10,882 -18 -10,992 Total of Renewable Energy Incentives …………………………………… -9,646 -2,615 -2,787 -1,303 -1,788 -2,058 -2,124 -2,186 -2,166 -2,136 -2,136 -18,142 -20,199 -28,817 -30,953 III. Tax Incentives for Business 1. Special allowance for certain property acquired during 2009 [7]...................................................... 2. Temporary increase in limitation on expensing of certain depreciable business assets.................... 3. 5-year carryback of 2008 and 2009 NOLs with exception for TARP recipients........... 4. Modification of the work opportunity tax credit incentives to hire unemployed veterans and di d hdisconnected youth................................................ 5. Extension of election to accelerate AMT and R&E credits in lieu of bonus depreciation [3]....... 6. Deferral of certain income from discharge of indebtedness.......................................................... 7. Increase section 1202 exclusion to 75% (sunset 12/31/10)............................................................... ppisa 12/31/08 tybi 2009 [8] i 12/31/08wpoia 12/31/08 tyea 12/31/08 ra 12/31/08 & before 1/1/11 sia DOE -23,916 -642 -29,652 28-28 -20 -7,091 2 -14,893 -425 -29,416 73-73 -984 -8,200 6 8,347 352 10,314 64-64 49 4,141 2 6,645 222 9,476 25-25 47 4,128 -- 5,646 162 7,190 10-10 33 4,115 -- 4,614 125 5,113 5-5 21 2,396 -207 3,098 79 3,579 2-2 15 -- - 360 1,985 45 2,469 [4] [4] 10 -- - 163 1,255 22 1,721 -- 8 -- - 50 961 10 1,180 -- 8 -- - 36 938 10 843 -- -- 22 -18,171 -331 -32,088 200-200 -875 -2,907 9 -13,557 -206 -26,975 206-206 -854 -511 -198 -6,258 -50 -18,026 207-207 -813 -511 -807 -5,320 -41 -17,183 208-208 -805 -511 -829 Total of Tax Incentives for Business ……………………………………… -61,347 -53,985 23,141 20,493 17,136 12,057 6,409 4,346 2,956 2,123 1,777 -54,563 -42,507 -26,672 -24,897 IV. Manufacturing Recovery Provisions 1. For bonds issued in 2009 and 2010, expand industrial development bonds to include creation of intangible property and eliminate 25% of proceeds restriction for facilities functionally related and subordinate to a manufacturing facility........................................... 2. Credit for investment in advanced energy property................................................................. bia DOE & before 1/1/11 ppisa DOE -1 -- - 6 -138 -16 -281 -23 -292 -24 -151 -23 -110 -23 -136 -23 -136 -22 -105 -22 -51 -21 -11 -70 -862 -93 -972 -183 -1,400 -203 -1,411 Total of Manufacturing Recovery Provisions …………………………… -1 -144 -297 -315 -175 -133 -159 -159 -127 -73 -32 -932 -1,065 -1,583 -1,614 V. Economic Recovery Tools 1. Recovery zone bonds ($15 billion private activity bond allocation; $10 billion allocation for refundable issuer credit bonds) [3].................. oia 12/31/08 & before 1/1/11 -112 -230 -473 -534 -536 -528 -520 -512 -504 -496 -486 -1,885 -2,413 -4,445 -4,931 Page 4 Provision Effective 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 2. Tribal economic development bonds - create a national pool of tax-exempt bonds for use by Indian tribes for economic development ($2 billion allocation)............................................ oia DOE -1 -4 -15 3. Extend and modify the new markets tax credit increase new markets tax credit equity limitation to a total of $5 billion for calendar years 2008 and 2009 and allow 2009 credits against the AMT.................................................... DOE -50 -36 -66 -31 -128 -39 -152 -39 -179 -39 -172 -38 -154 -37 -113 -36 -1 -36 -90 -129 -279 -315 4 -432 -610 -1,051 -1,046 Total of Economic Recovery Tools ……………………………………… -163 -270 -554 -693 -727 -746 -731 -704 -654 -533 -518 -2,407 -3,152 -5,775 -6,292 VI. Infrastructure Financing Tools 1. Modification of rules applicable to financial institutions for interest expense relating to oia 12/31/08 & tax-exempt income................................................. before 1/1/11 -79 -239 -326 2. For bonds issued during 2009 and 2010, repeal fl i i i li i iof alternative minimum tax limitations on private-activity tax-exempt bonds and modify ACE to exclude interest from all tax-exempt oia 12/31/08 & bonds..................................................................... before 12/31/10 -21 -60 -68 3. Delay 3% withholding on government contracts by one year............................................................ DOE -- -- - 5,819 4. Qualified school construction bonds ($5 billion in 2009 and 2010).................................................. oia 12/31/08 -9 -50 -143 5. Extend and expand qualified zone academy bonds ($1.4 billion in 2009 and 2010).................. oia 12/31/08 -1 -10 -40 6. Build America Bonds - general rule: 35% credit to bondholders for bonds issued in 2009, 2010, and 2011; 35% refundable credit to issuers for bonds issued in 2009 and 2010 [3]...... oia 12/31/08 -53 -323 -829 -340 -41 5,528 -278 -90 -778 -336 -42 -- - 417 -130 -753 -331 -42 -- - 536 -140 -728 -326 -42 -- - 611 -137 -704 -321 -42 -- - 632 -131 -680 -317 -41 -- - 619 -125 -664 -312 -41 -- - 602 -121 -649 -307 -1,320 -1,651 -2,927 -3,234 -41 -232 -274 -440 -481 -- 291 -291 -291 -291 -592 -897 -1,433 -3,897 -4,489 -120 -271 -411 -925 -1,045 -634 -2,736 -3,464 -6,161 -6,796 Total of Infrastructure Financing Tools ………………………………… -163 -682 -7,225 4,001 -1,678 -1,777 -1,820 -1,806 -1,766 -1,725 -1,694 -5,747 -7,524 -14,641 -16,336 Total of Tax Provisions [3] …………………………………………………… -97,117 -155,537 -39,040 21,889 12,433 6,721 1,035 -967 -2,086 -2,454 -2,644 -257,377 -250,654 -255,130 -257,778 Other Provisions 1. Prohibition on collection of certain payments made under the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act of 2000 [9]........................................... DOE -10 -30 -30 2. Extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs [9].......................................................... DOE -31 -55 -19 -10 -3 -10 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 90 -90 -90 -90 -- 108 -108 -108 -108 Page 5 Provision Effective 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 3. Economic recovery payments to recipients of Social Security, supplement security income, railroad retirement, and veterans disability benefits [9] [10]..................................................... DOE -17,000 -------------------------------17,000 -17,000 -17,000 -17,000 4. Increase in statutory limit on the public debt......... DOE -------------------------------------------- Total of Other Provisions ………………………………………………… -17,041 -85 -49 -13 -10 -------------------17,198 -17,198 -17,198 -17,198 NET TOTAL ……………………………………………………………………-114,158 -155,622 -39,089 21,876 12,423 6,721 1,035 -967 -2,086 -2,454 -2,644 -274,575 -267,852 -272,328 -274,976 Joint Committee on Taxation NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Legend for "Effective" column: bra = benefits received after oia = obligations issued after tyba = taxable years beginning after DOE = date of enactment pa = periods after tyea = taxable years ending after ea = expenditures after ppisa = property placed in service after tybi = taxable years beginning in h/ h h d ft h ft wpoiia = wages paid or iincurred aft fterhpo/a = houses purchased on or after ra = repurchases after id d [1] Revenue estimates are prepared using our 2009 estimating models, which rely on the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2009 macroeconomic forecasts. The Congressional Budget Office plans to prepare a March revision to its baseline macroeconomic assumptions. If large-scale stimulus legislation is enacted early in 2009, the Congressional Budget Office’s March 2009 revised macroeconomic forecasts could be expected to differ, perhaps significantly, from their January 2009 counterparts. In that case, we anticipate that we would revise our 2009 estimating models to reflect the Congressional Budget Office’s March 2009 macroeconomic forecasts: revenue estimates prepared using these revised March 2009 macroeconomic inputs again could differ, perhaps materially, from revenue estimates of the same request using our 2009 models with January 2009 macroeconomic forecasts. [2] Estimated outlay effects as a result of U.S. possessions provision provided by the Joint Committee on Taxation in consultation with the Congressional Budget Office. [3] Estimate includes an increase in outlays: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009-13 2009-14 2009-18 2009-19 Making work pay credit………………………………………………… ---22,268 22,984 ------------------------45,252 45,252 45,252 45,252 Treatment of U.S. Possessions………………………………………… 641 708 14 ------------------------1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 Earned income credit…………………………………………………… ---1,833 1,803 ------------------------3,636 3,636 3,636 3,636 Child tax credit………………………………………………………… ---5,303 5,238 ------------------------10,541 10,541 10,541 10,541 Election to accelerate AMT and R&E credits in lieu of bonus depreciation ………………………………………………… 8 394 ---------------------------402 402 402 402 American Opportunity Credit………………………………………… 242 1,262 1,170 ------------------------2,674 2,674 2,674 2,674 First-time homebuyer credit…………………………………………… -22 -65 ----------------------------87 -87 -87 -87 Taxable bond option…………………………………………………… 51 292 368 327 320 314 308 302 296 290 284 1,358 1,672 2,868 3,152 Recovery zone bonds…………………………………………………… 91 122 244 244 242 239 237 234 232 230 227 943 1,182 2,115 2,342 Economic recovery payments………………………………………… 17,000 ------------------------------17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 Total increase in outlays…………………………………………………… 18,011 32,117 31,821 571 562 553 545 536 528 520 511 83,082 83,635 85,764 86,275 [4] Loss of less than $500,000. [5] Estimate includes interaction with Making Work Pay Credit and Additional Tax Relief for Families With Children. [6] Effective for carrybacks from 2008 and 2009 and credits used in 2008 and 2009. [Footnotes for JCX-11-09 are continued on the following page] Page 6 Footnotes for JCX-11-09 continued: [7] The provision modifies the definition of qualified property to include certain motion picture film or video tape. Under the modification, a taxpayer may elect to include certain films as qualifying property in lieu of applying section 181 to such film. [8] Effective for net operating losses generated in taxable years ending in 2008 and 2009. [9] Estimate provided by the Congressional Budget Office. [10] Estimate is preliminary and subject to change.